South Korea’s exports likely increased for the ninth consecutive month in June, mainly due to semiconductor sales to the U.S., though the growth rate probably slowed because of calendar effects, a Reuters poll indicated on Thursday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are estimated to have risen by 6.3% in June compared to the previous year, according to the median estimate of 11 economists surveyed. This growth rate is lower than the 11.5% increase in May and is the slowest since March. Most economists attributed the slowdown to unfavorable calendar effects, as June had 21.5 working days this year compared to 23 last year.
As the first major exporting economy to report monthly trade figures, South Korea provides an early look at global demand. “The trend of growing exports likely continued as semiconductor exports remained strong,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities. “Solid demand in the United States is driving demand for South Korean exports, with U.S.-bound shipments now making up about 20% of the total,” Chun added.
In the first 20 days of June, exports rose by 8.5%, with semiconductor shipments increasing by 50.2%. Exports to the United States rose by 23.5%, while those to China increased by 5.6%.
South Korea’s exports are expected to approach record-high levels in the first half of this year, according to the finance minister. In the second half, exports will likely be supported by economic recovery in regions outside the United States, though annual growth rates may weaken due to high comparison bases, economists noted.
